Resource-rich developing countries are different. They obviously have large resource sectors, but these typically operate as enclaves, and most profits are repatriated, so net factor income is typically large and negative. In this seminar, Martin Davies presented the findings of a paper co-authored with Marcel Schröder, which presents a simple model of internal and external balance that incorporates the key features of this class of countries. Using this framework, the authors suggest a new paradigm for policy-setting in resource-rich developing countries. This includes a new equilibrium exchange rate concept, and a number of other interesting results, including the possibility that an export boom could be contractionary. The authors then estimate, using this new approach, a set of equilibrium real exchange rates for a panel of resource-rich developing countries.

Dr Martin Davies is Assistant Professor of Economics at Washington and Lee University. His research interests include international trade and development. He has a DPhil from Oxford University, and has taught at the University of Papua New Guinea (UPNG), St John’s College Oxford, and the Foreign Commonwealth Office (UK). He has held a post at the Australian Treasury, and is a visitor to UPNG under the ANU-UPNG partnership.

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The United States and China have followed nearly parallel paths as providers of foreign aid over the past seven decades. Although both countries’ aid programs were ostensibly aimed at development, both also leveraged their aid programs to further their own national interests, using very different strategies.

The United States has largely provided foreign aid with the aim of stabilising the world order, favouring a patron-client relationship with recipient countries and using aid to promote economic and political liberalisation. China, on the other hand, has used its foreign aid program primarily to strengthen its position as a leader of the Global South, favouring a hands-off political approach and emphasising reciprocity and solidarity with aid recipients.

In this seminar, Professor Frank Bongiorno launched and Dr Patrick Kilby discussed his recent monograph for the East West Center on US and Chinese aid. In times of growing authoritarianism, as the Trump administration considers cutting foreign aid by one third, he argues that the US should carefully consider whether it will cede the ‘aid race’ to its political competitor.

Dr Patrick Kilby is a political scientist with the School of Archaeology and Anthropology in the College of Arts and Social Sciences, The Australian National University (ANU), and convener of the Master of Applied Anthropology and Participatory Development. He was an East West Center Visiting Fellow in Washington in 2017, and a Fulbright Senior Scholar in 2018.

Professor Frank Bongiorno is a professor at the School of History, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU. He has held lecturing positions at King’s College London (2007-11), the University of New England (2000-07) and Griffith University (1996), and also taught previously at ANU (1994).

The podcast is available here.

The Governance for Growth (GfG) program in Vanuatu has been running for ten years, and is about to move into its third phase. Considered to be quite innovative when it was first implemented, the program has supported some significant economic policy and public finance reforms. It has also survived changes to the institutional arrangements for the delivery of Australian aid, and significant shifts in the political landscape in Vanuatu.

The program was recently the subject of two in-depth reviews, one led by the Overseas Development Institute, and the other by a team of Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) economists. These reviews provide an opportunity to consider the successes and failures of GfG, what elements of the model were most useful in supporting success, and whether the lessons of the last ten years have implications for other small island developing states.

These issues were discussed in a panel session involving:

Pablo Kang, Assistant Secretary, Melanesia Branch, DFAT, and former Head of Mission in Vanuatu

Matthew Harding, Director, Pacific Economic Growth Section, DFAT, and Manager of GfG during the evaluations

Jonathan Gouy, Director, Development Economics Unit, DFAT and leader of the economic review

Clinton Pobke, Manager and Jennifer Kalpokas Doan, Senior Program Manager, GfG

Bob Warner, Visiting Fellow, Development Policy Centre, and member of the GfG review team

This event is presented by the Development Policy Centre, a consortium partner of the Pacific Research Program (PRP). PRP is supported by the Australian aid program.

The podcast and slides are now available.

The colourful banners and huge campaign rallies of the 2017 Papua New Guinea National Elections held in June and July may have put policy on the backburner for some as they were swept up in the excitement of the vote.

But one issue was never far from voters’ minds as they headed to the polls — the concerning state of the country’s economy, and the impact on their own lives.

The returned O’Neill government faces major economic challenges. So what are the problems, and what should the Prime Minister and his new Treasurer do about them?

Marcel Schröder of Lebanese American University, Rohan Fox of the ANU Development Policy Centre and Nelson Nema of the University of Papua New Guinea presented their 2017 PNG Economic Survey, co-authored with their colleague, Stephen Howes.

The panel was chaired by Michelle Rooney.

This was the first in a two-part series on PNG after the 2017 elections. A second event on political issues will be held on 18 October.

This event is presented as part of the Development Policy Centre’s PNG Project, which receives funding from the Australian Aid Program through the Pacific Governance and Leadership Precinct.

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The relationship between aid and state building is highly complex and the effects of aid on weak states depend on donors’ interests, aid modalities and the recipient’s pre-existing institutional and socio-political conditions. This book argues that, in the case of Afghanistan, the country inherited conditions that were not favourable for effective state building. Although some of the problems that emerged in the post-2001 state building process were predictable, the types of interventions that occurred—including an aid architecture which largely bypassed the state, the subordination of state building to the war on terror, and the short horizon policy choices of donors and the Afghan government—reduced the effectiveness of the aid and undermined effective state building.

By examining how foreign aid affected state building in Afghanistan since the US militarily intervened in Afghanistan in late 2001 until the end of President Hamid Karzai’s first term in 2009, this book reveals the dynamic and complex relations between the Afghan government and foreign donors in their efforts to rebuild state institutions. The work explores three key areas: how donors supported government reforms to improve the taxation system, how government reorganised the state’s fiscal management system, and how aid dependency and aid distribution outside the government budget affected interactions between state and society. Given that external revenue in the form of tribute, subsidies and aid has shaped the characteristics of the state in Afghanistan since the mid-eighteenth century, this book situates state building in a historical context.

In this event, author Dr Nematullah Bizhan shared his findings, while Professor Mark Evans, officially launched the book.

Nematullah Bizhan is Research Fellow at the Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. He is also a Senior Research Associate at the Oxford University’s Global Economic Governance Program and a Visiting Fellow at Asia Pacific College of Diplomacy and Development Policy Centre, The Australian National University. He has a PhD in Political Science and International Relations from The Australian National University and was previously a high-level participant in the post-2001 government of Afghanistan.

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International peace and statebuilding interventions have become ubiquitous since the 1990s. Their frequent failures, however, have prompted some researchers and practitioners to move beyond focusing on interveners’ ideas and approaches to analysing how their interactions with recipients shape outcomes. The recently published book by Shahar Hameiri, Caroline Hughes and Fabio Scarpello, International Interventions and Local Politics: Fragmented States and the Politics of Scale (Cambridge University Press, 2017), critically evaluates these analyses, advancing an innovative approach, placing the politics of scale at the core of the conflicts and compromises shaping the outcomes of international interventions. Different scales — e.g. local, national and international — privilege different interests, unevenly allocating power, resources and political opportunities.

In a panel discussion, two of the book’s authors discussed their approaches, demonstrating their utility with a case study of the Aceh Government Transformation Program. Saku Akmeemana acted as discussant, providing a policy practitioner’s perspective on the book’s findings.

Shahar Hameiri is Associate Professor of International Politics and Associate Director of the Graduate Centre in Governance and International Affairs, School of Political Science and International Studies, University of Queensland.

Fabio Scarpello is a Consultant with VJW International and an Associate Fellow of the Asia Research Centre, Murdoch University.

Saku Akmeemana is the Principal Specialist, Governance, at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

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Over the last decade, international development policies, most notably in the UK, have advanced ‘political settlements’ as a framing concept to guide statebuilding practice in fragile and conflict-affected states. Such policies have encouraged efforts towards achieving an inclusive, or inclusive enough, political settlement as a bulwark against instability. The empirical research underpinning the policy dictum, however, is surprisingly thin.

This presentation probed the relationship between the character of a post-conflict political settlement and subsequent trajectories of stability or instability through two case studies: Timor-Leste and Bougainville.

While there is a headline correlation between an inclusive settlement and stability, and an exclusionary settlement and instability, the processes at work are more nuanced. In these two case studies the proximate drivers of instability, which may be the product of an exclusionary settlement, are serious elite splits and rent restriction. Conversely, elite cooperation and rent sharing support stability. The case studies also highlight several factors that can accentuate or moderate the motivation and capacity of elites to destabilise, and of citizens to fall in behind them.

This seminar was presented by the Development Policy Centre in conjunction with The State, Society and Governance in Melanesia (SSGM) program.

Sue Ingram is an honorary senior policy fellow with the State, Society and Governance in Melanesia (SSGM) program in the College of Asia and the Pacific, the Australian National University.

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This forum, which was jointly organised by the Development Policy Centre and the Office of Development Effectiveness (ODE), was the latest in a series on the evaluation of Australian aid.

It focused on two recent evaluations. The first was an end of program review for the Basic Education Assistance for Muslim Mindanao (BEAM-ARMM) program, which involved four implementing partners working across four distinct components in the conflict-affected Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. It’s objective was to contribute to poverty alleviation and sustainable peace, through increasing access and quality of basic education, and training for Out of School Youth. The review highlighted some of the challenges and lessons for evaluating and achieving improved educational outcomes in complex, high-risk environments.

The second evaluation focuseed on pandemics and emerging infectious diseases, with the view of contributing to the evidence base on strengthening health systems in the Asia-Pacific region to prevent, detect and respond. The evaluation informed decision-making about future Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) investments and policy engagement on regional health security, and approaches for future DFAT responses to disease outbreaks. The evaluation also contributed to the literature on lessons learned from previous outbreak responses, with a focus on impact on human and animal health systems and community engagement on prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases.

ODE is an operationally independent unit within DFAT that measures and reports on the effectiveness of the Australian aid program. Further information about ODE

Further information about the Development Policy Centre: devpolicy.anu.edu.au

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BEAM-ARMM end of program review

By Ty Morrissey and Ina Aquino

Evaluating Australia’s Investment in Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response in the Asia Pacific Region 2006-2015

By Gill Schierhout, Laurence Gleeson, Adam Craig and Irene Wettenhall

Evaluation of regional initiatives for PEID 2006-15?

By Mahomed Patel

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Australian aid evaluations Part 1: basic education in Mindanao

Australian aid evaluations Part 2: pandemics and emerging infectious diseases

PNG was severely impacted by the 2015-16 El Niño drought and, at some very high altitude locations, a series of destructive frosts. The drought and frosts impacted many rural villagers between mid-2015 and late 2016, with some people still severely impacted in early 2017. Impacts included: widespread shortages of drinking water; shortages of subsistence food in many places; negative effect on villagers’ health; partial or complete closure of schools; and the Fly River not being suitable for shipping for some months. The impact on food supply was greatest in four sub-regions: very high altitude places in parts of Enga, Hela and Western Highlands; much of inland lowland Western Province; several locations on the edge of the central highlands; and some island and mainland locations in Milne Bay Province.

The five speakers were closely involved in the assessment of food shortages and coordination of food distribution. Presentations covered: a national overview of the impacts; more detailed reports on impacts and food aid in parts of Enga, Hela, Western and Milne Bay provinces; and responses by the PNG national government, donors, churches, international non-government organisations and UN agencies.

The public forum is presented as part of the Development Policy Centre’s PNG Project, which receives funding from the Australian Aid Program through the Pacific Governance and Leadership Precinct.

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• Impact of the 2015-2016 drought and frosts: an overview

by Dr Mike Bourke OL (PNG)

• The humanitarian response to the 2015-16 El Niño event in Papua New Guinea

by Brendan Jinks

• Impact of drought and relief efforts western province 2015 –2016

by Sally Lloyd (Hoey)

• The impact of the 2015-16 El Niño on high altitude places in Hela and Enga provinces

by James Komengi and Brendan Jinks

Tropical forests are an undervalued asset in meeting the greatest global challenges of our time—averting climate change and promoting sustainable development. Despite their importance, tropical forests and their ecosystems are being destroyed at a high and even increasing rate in most forest-rich countries. The good news is that the science, economics, and politics are aligned to support a major international effort to reverse tropical deforestation.

Why Forests? Why Now? a new book by Frances Seymour and Jonah Busch, synthesizes the latest research on the importance of tropical forests in a way that is accessible to anyone interested in climate change and development and to readers already familiar with the problem of deforestation. It makes the case to decision-makers in rich countries that rewarding developing countries for protecting their forests is urgent, affordable, and achievable.

This event was co-hosted by the Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, the ANU Indonesia Project and the Development Policy Centre.

Jonah Busch is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development (CGD). He is an environmental economist whose research focuses on climate change and tropical deforestation. He is a research fellow at the Center for Effective Global Action at the University of California, Berkeley and a visiting scholar at the College of Environmental and Resource Sciences of Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China. Prior to joining CGD Busch was the Climate and Forest Economist at Conservation International.

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In this talk Professor Fforde will discuss how risk and uncertainty are best coped with in development practice. In doing this, he will examine the theories of change that underpin aid practitioners’ use of tools such as the logical framework approach. He will contend that in many situations we should explore methods of devising policy and organising practice that formally assume context is unpredictable and unsuited to tools like the logical framework approach. He will argue that aid work can often benefit from reconsidering the theories of change it draws upon.

Professor Adam Fforde is Professorial Fellow, Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University. He has a long career in development practice and research. His forthcoming book is Reinventing ‘development’ – the sceptical change agent.

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Africa has a rich history; old and diverse cultures; and abundant and varied natural resources. Yet, a large majority of Africans remain poor, disenfranchised and oppressed. For five and half centuries, the trajectory of Africa’s autonomous development was distorted by the intervention of nascent Europe: the slave trade, the colonial venture and the Cold War. A legacy of the colonial system, the prototype independent African state has failed to deliver freedom, democracy and prosperity, giving rise to a crisis of legitimacy and relevance.

Against this backdrop, this lecture discussed the basic causes of the democratic deficit in Africa today and its prospects. The discourse focused on the concept of self-determination as a political right of: one, a nation to independence; two, a people to a government of their choice; and three, diverse groups to autonomy in the management of their day-to-day affairs.

Ambassador Andebrhan Welde Giorgis is President of Eri-Platform, an international civic association promoting inclusive dialogue on vital national, regional and international issues impacting Eritrea and the Horn of Africa. He is also Senior Expert in the Global Governance Institute, founding board member of the European Centre for Electoral Support and Brand Ambassador of Wallonia, Belgium. He served as a university president, central bank governor, Member of Parliament, ambassador to the EU and seven EU Member States, Permanent Representative to UNESCO and IMO, Special Envoy to the African Great Lakes Region, and Commissioner for Coordination with the UN Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia. He has published several articles and his recent book is Eritrea at a Crossroads: A Narrative of Triumph, Betrayal and Hope.

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This forum, which was jointly organised by the Development Policy Centre and the Office of Development Effectiveness (ODE), was the latest in a series on the evaluation of Australian aid.

This event focused on the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s (DFAT’s) new aid evaluation policy and two recent evaluations.

Recently, DFAT has overhauled its approach to evaluation, with a new Aid Evaluation Policy and, for the first time, an Annual Aid Evaluation Plan – both available on the ODE website. The Head of ODE explained what these mean, and what difference they will make.

The $336 million, ten-year Eastern Indonesia Roads Improvement Program was one of Australia’s largest ever aid projects, and one of the most successful. This recent ODE evaluation assesses its results, and draws out the lessons for aid-funded infrastructure programs elsewhere.

Remote service delivery in PNG is always a challenge. But a recent evaluation of remote health patrols run by Australian Doctors International (ADI) in New Ireland from 2011 to 2015 suggests that this is a model that works. The evaluator discussed her findings, and the ADI Chief Executive Officer presented respond of ADI on the evaluator findings.

ODE is an operationally independent unit within DFAT that measures and reports on the effectiveness of the Australian aid program.

Further information about the Development Policy Centre: devpolicy.anu.edu.au

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• Aid Evaluation Policy and Annual Aid Evaluation Plan

By Penny Davis, Office of Development Effectiveness

• Investing in roads - lessons from the Eastern Indonesia, National Road Improvement Project

By Simon Ernst, Office of Development Effectiveness

• Evaluation of ADI’s New Ireland integrated patrol system over the period of 2011 to 2015

By Klara Henderson, evaluation author (video)

Development aid from donor countries amounts to more than US $130 billion annually. More than half of that amount comes from European Union nations. However, sustainable development cannot be achieved through aid alone. The United Nations’ 2030 Agenda and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development have underlined the importance of domestic resource mobilisation and investments – both public and private – for sustainable social, environmental, and economic development efforts to take hold. The paradigm has changed and the European Union’s development policy will be adapted within the framework of the European Union Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy in the light of the 2030 Agenda and new global challenges and also taking into consideration the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

The Director-General discussed European Union development policy in light of these developments, paying particular attention to the Pacific region.

Stefano Manservisi is the Director-General for International Cooperation and Development (DEVCO) at the European Commission since May 2016. He previously served as Head of the Private Office of Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Commission Vice-President. In 2014, he was the Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Turkey. Before that, he held other positions at the Commission including as Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs and Director-General for Development and Relations with African, Caribbean, and Pacific States. Stefano Manservisi has been a visiting professor at the University of Bologna, University of Roma III, and the College of Europe.

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